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Recent comments:

• 
  Ben - Editor
  June 5th, 2008 @12:48 #
   
  
  

  I've given starting odds as follows:

  Fiction Prize

  * Coetzee 9-5 (Can't bet against Coetzee; he has to be in pole position to begin.)
  * Dovey 3-1 (She's been on a number of shortlists this year and may just strike gold yet.)
  * Mhlongo, Gray and Cartwright 6-1 (Prizes are a lottery and these three have a fair shot.)

  Alan Paton Award

  Alan Paton Award

  * Gevisser 6-5 (His book's public meta-narrative is the strongest of the bunch by far.)
  * Van Onselen 9-5 (If I was the judge...)
  * Bizos 7-2 (The other books seem to be stronger both on public meta-narrative and on literary claims.)

  
  
• 
  Louis Greenberg
  June 5th, 2008 @12:51 #
   
  
  

  Hi Ben - being, um, green, at betting, I'm not sure how this works. Why can't I just bet 100 on all the books?

  
  
• 
  Ben - Editor
  June 5th, 2008 @13:05 #
   
  
  

  Because then you're giving them equal odds to win. Think like a bettor: on which book(s) would you risk money for payoffs? This game gives you enough 'money' to bet on all the books, so you can spread the risk around. Thus, putting 20 on Gray might make sense, because the odds are relatively long and if he wins you'll get more out of a smaller wager. But putting 60 on Dovey might also make sense, as consensus is building around her, making her a 'safer' bet, although the payout is not as lucrative. Got it?

  
  
• 
  Rustum Kozain
  June 5th, 2008 @13:18 #
   
  
  

  What are we saying about literary awards when we bet on them?

  Anyhoo, I'm not a betting man and am erm, risk averse. I usually only bet on mnemonic trivia, as in disputes about whether Grease preceded Saturday Night Fever.

  There doesn't seem to be a safe bet with this award, you no, like a 2-1, although I guess 9-5 seems close enough. And I don't have the inclination to look at the history of the Sunday Times awards. Anyone have an archive of short-lists and winners?

  But for me the riddle is: how do totes calculate odds? Ben, is it more like a gut feeling based on your knowledge of both field and histories of award and runners, or is it scientific. Arcane or scientific? I guess it can't be scientific, otherwise it wouldn't be gambling.

  
  
• 
  Lauren Beukes
  June 5th, 2008 @13:23 #
   
  
  

  Gah. Confessions of a non-gambler. This is all very mathsy. Can't I just put all my cash on one horse?

  
  
• 
  Louis Greenberg
  June 5th, 2008 @13:28 #
   
  
  

  Too confusing for my head... I think the whims of the handful of non-gamblers and one or two heavy gamblers who make up this community will give us some very skewed odds....

  
  
• 
  Lauren Beukes
  June 5th, 2008 @13:30 #
   
  
  

  Rustum, people will bet on anything including events in the Middle East. I can't remember the exact details but at one point a few years ago a US government think tank-style organisation was using an open betting market to predict events in the Middle East (placing bets on would Arafat be assassinated, for example?) It was shut down when it became public knowledge and there was a bit of an uproar about the ethics of profiteering off tragic events. I think it was mentioned in Freakonomics or possibly The Wisdom of Crowds.

  
  
• 
  Ben - Editor
  June 5th, 2008 @13:35 #
   
  
  

  It's time, gentle folk, to just plunge in and place a few bets. Forget your inexperience, forget the rules - I've given each of you 1000 'cash', now spend it!

  Lauren, a link that might interest you:

  http://mediapredict.com

  
  
• 
  Kathryn
  June 5th, 2008 @13:38 #
   
  
  

  Ai Ben!

  to writers a : is about presenting an idea, not an X (as in multiply), or is it a divide ? (i don't even know where the divide button is on my keyboard). We were the kids who did well in English, failed maths, and have bad banking skills. some writers even marry people who are organised and remind us not to drink too much or gamble or do other bad things.

  Can we have a times table square block thing so that we know where the 9 goes and the 5 goes?

  
  
• 
  Kathryn
  June 5th, 2008 @13:38 #
   
  
  

  and a - is another thing all together

  
  
• 
  Kathryn
  June 5th, 2008 @13:40 #
   
  
  

  and now i have confused myself even more.

  
  
• 
  Louis Greenberg
  June 5th, 2008 @13:40 #
   
  
  

  Ben, I bet just now, and the odds on one book shortened considerably ... will the game remember what the odds were when I placed the bet?

  Any way I can go back in and spend the rest of my credits?

  
  
• 
  Rustum Kozain
  June 5th, 2008 @13:41 #
   
  
  

  Oh, why didn't you say we had a gift purse, Ben? Oh, there's a virtual betting station!

  
  
• 
  Rustum Kozain
  June 5th, 2008 @13:42 #
   
  
  

  Lauren, yes. Gamblers.

  
  
• 
  Richard de Nooy
  June 5th, 2008 @13:47 #
   
  
  

  Anyone interested in a T-shirt with the text "Rank Outsider"?

  PS: The popularity of Grease may be largely attributed to John Travolta's fame in the wake of SNF.

  
  
• 
  Lauren Beukes
  June 5th, 2008 @13:48 #
   
  
  

  Ah, but isn't publishing itself a gamble?

  
  
• 
  Ben - Editor
  June 5th, 2008 @13:52 #
   
  
  

  Louis, you can bet until you've spent your full 1000 allotment. Box clever!

  Katherine, to 'read' the odds, take the second number and put it first in this sentence:

  Odds offered: [author] has [2nd number] chances to win in [1st number].

  So if the odds are 9-5, the author has 5 chances to win in 9, or just better than 1 chance to win in 2. Short odds. Get it?

  
  
• 
  Rustum Kozain
  June 5th, 2008 @14:35 #
   
  
  

  - Anyone interested in a T-shirt with the text "Rank Outsider"?

  Me, me , me.

  - PS: The popularity of Grease may be largely attributed to John Travolta's fame in the wake of SNF.

  That's what I said.

  
  
• 
  Rustum Kozain
  June 5th, 2008 @14:39 #
   
  
  

  OK, only now am I starting to understand odds more precisely. So, Ben, short odds also mean that if they come to pass, the payout is smaller? I mean, payout per unit bet. A 1ZAR will get me 2ZAR back?

  The first time I went to the J&B Met, I came out more or less even. But I met some lucky f--ker at an after party who, in the last race, had indeed bet on the rank outsider (100-1), which then won. What did he bet? ZAR1000!

  
  
• 
  Richard de Nooy
  June 5th, 2008 @15:40 #
   
  
  

  Excellent, Rustum. I also have a body-hugging, black lycra number with the text "Dark Horse", which I won't be needing for the awards dance. And a slightly tear-stained acceptance speech, in which words "Richard de Nooy" can be easily Tipp-Exed out and replaced with Rustum Kozain.

  
  
• 
  Richard de Nooy
  June 5th, 2008 @15:43 #
   
  
  

  PS: Just re-read it. It's all "I" and "me" and "one", so you won't need the Tipp-Ex.

  
  
• 
  Rustum Kozain
  June 5th, 2008 @19:29 #
   
  
  

  Richard, I should wear the Richard de Nooy t-shirt while reading your book upside down, for that picture.

  
  
• 
  Ben - Editor
  June 5th, 2008 @22:41 #
   
  
  

  Latest odds:

  Fiction Prize

  * Coetzee 17-1
  * Dovey 3-5 (!)
  * Mhlongo 7-2
  * Gray 10-1
  * Cartwright 14-1

  Alan Paton Award

  * Gevisser 15-1
  * Van Onselen 1-5 (!)
  * Bizos 12-1

  
  
• 
  Richard de Nooy
  June 6th, 2008 @00:05 #
   
  
  

  I hope you mean the official "Rank Outsider" T-shirt. If you wear a Richard de Nooy T-shirt, people will think: look, there's Richard de Nooy reading his own book upside-down.

  And while we're on the subject of rank outsiders, I think I see a pattern emerging in the odds.

  
  
• 
  Rustum Kozain
  June 6th, 2008 @11:10 #
   
  
  

  Yes, that would be a t-shirt with "Richard de Nooy" emblazoned on it: how's about blue letters on an orange shirt?

  
  
• 
  Richard de Nooy
  June 6th, 2008 @11:27 #
   
  
  

  Basic black would make the cover stand out better. And I don't want to say yes to orange, because I know how touchy you and Sven are when it comes to nationalistic sentiments.

  
  
• 
  Rustum Kozain
  June 6th, 2008 @13:23 #
   
  
  

  Richard, me in orange would of course be satirising and subverting the whole nationalist thing. I'll even bring a bowl of bitterballen! Don't know where to get korenwijn though.

  
  
• 
  Richard de Nooy
  June 6th, 2008 @14:09 #
   
  
  

  Sven has promised to drop in. Perhaps he could get a bottle of duty-free schnapps.

  
  
• 
  Ben - Editor
  June 6th, 2008 @17:17 #
   
  
  

  Latest odds:

  Fiction Prize

  * Coetzee 6-1
  * Dovey 4-5 (!)
  * Mhlongo 4-1
  * Gray 11-1
  * Cartwright 16-1

  Bookie says: "Cartwright's odds have lengthened to the point where risk looks appetizing. Bet to show?"

  Alan Paton Award

  * Gevisser 7-2
  * Van Onselen 3-5
  * Bizos 9-2

  Bookie says: "Gevisser is the bargain of this bunch."

  
  
• 
  Rustum Kozain
  June 6th, 2008 @18:13 #
   
  
  

  So, Ben, does Dovey's odds now mean for every 5 bet I will get only 4 back - i.e. lose?

  
  
• 
  Ben - Editor
  June 6th, 2008 @18:32 #
   
  
  

  That's right, Rustum. Similarly, van Onselen pays 3 on 5. They're entrenched as the favourites.

  
  
• 
  Ben - Editor
  June 9th, 2008 @16:22 #
   
  
  

  Latest odds:

  Fiction Prize

  * Coetzee 3-1
  * Dovey EVEN
  * Mhlongo 5-1
  * Gray 12-1
  * Cartwright 18-1

  Bookie says: "Coetzee's charge shows quality will out, and helps Mhlongo, Gray and Cartwright become worthier risks."

  Alan Paton Award

  * Gevisser 2-1
  * Van Onselen 4-5
  * Bizos 5-1

  Bookie says: "It's getting warm in this room."

  
  
• 
  Lauren Beukes
  June 9th, 2008 @20:30 #
   
  
  

  Gah! I have learned a painful lesson in gambling here; never publicly announce your favourite, especially not with passion and conviction. Did I say Dovey was going to win? I meant Cartwright!

  
  
• 
  Rustum Kozain
  June 10th, 2008 @11:08 #
   
  
  

  Erm, I know this is a literary site, but, you know, football can be literary: "In football everything is complicated by the presence of the opposite team", said Jean-Paul Sartre. See more at http://www.philosophyfootball.com/

  So, Ben, any odds on the Euro 2008?

  
  
• 
  Richard de Nooy
  June 10th, 2008 @11:27 #
   
  
  

  "Football is a simple game; 22 men chase a ball for 90 minutes and at the end, the Germans always win." (Gary Lineker)

  Sartre always brings to mind the toilet-door classic:

  - To be is to do. (Descartes)
  - To do is to be. (Sartre)
  - Do be do be do. (Sinatra)

  
  
• 
  Rustum Kozain
  June 10th, 2008 @11:52 #
   
  
  

  Yes, go Germany! Although, Holland are looking scary. God, I wish I had a television, although The Guardian's minute-by-minute reports can sometimes be quite novelistic.

  Richard, Lineker obviously wasn't reading his Pierre Bourdieu: "Nothing is simultaneously freer and more constrained than the action of the good player. He quite naturally materialises at just the place the ball is about to fall, as if the ball were in command of him - but by that very fact, he is in command of the ball." Pierre Bourdieu

  
  
• 
  Richard de Nooy
  June 10th, 2008 @12:14 #
   
  
  

  "If they don't have the ball, they can't score." This from Dutch footie guru Johan Cruyff. I think he'd roundly whip Bourdieu's ass on the pitch, but not on the page.

  
  
• 
  Rustum Kozain
  June 10th, 2008 @12:56 #
   
  
  

  I'm quite charmed by the fact that, just like me, these philosophers have quite a sense of humour, and that they pull it off while employing their own dry styles.

  Just skimming Roland Barthes's Mythologies this morning, I found this: "[J]ust as wine becomes for a good number of intellectuals a mediumistic substance which leads them towards the original strength of nature, steak is for them a redeeming food, thanks to which they bring their intellectualism to the level of prose and exorcise, through blood and soft pulp, the sterile dryness of which they are constantly accused."

  Is he saying: if I hadn't had this steak I wouldn't have written this? And writing about this steak injects some colour into my prose because I am writing about an everyday, concrete thing? And look, I can even make fun of myself in a witty, self-reflexive way, by noting that, and noting how it enlivens my prose?

  God, I'd like some steak. A nice big, fat slab of rump, medium to rare (that's between rare and medium-rare; it's more rare than medium-rare, but not quite rare, a fine distinction that restaurateurs here might do well to cultivate), and nice and crisp on the outside, with fat that is just crispy. And a few thick slices of tomato. And a glass of heavy but not too obtrusive red wine...

  
  
• 
  Rustum Kozain
  June 10th, 2008 @12:58 #
   
  
  

  maybe a slice of sourdough rye with that...

  
  
• 
  Richard de Nooy
  June 10th, 2008 @13:17 #
   
  
  

  Salivating silently into my keyboard. Barthes has always had that effect on me.

  
  
• 
  Richard de Nooy
  June 10th, 2008 @13:26 #
   
  
  

  I once experienced something akin to hunger while hiking in the Pyrenees. All I could think of was a currant bun with cheese.

  
  
• 
  Ben - Editor
  June 10th, 2008 @13:30 #
   
  
  

  Chew on this:

  Germany 4/1Portugal 67/13Holland 11/2Spain 57/10Italy 12/1

  Get odds here:

  http://www.oddschecker.com/football/internationals/euro-2008

  ST Lit odds unchanged from my last posting, meanwhile!

  
  
• 
  Rustum Kozain
  June 10th, 2008 @14:02 #
   
  
  

  ooh, just remembered, today is sourdough rye day at my Spar. Now where to get some pickled herring? Some good pickled herring, not that stuff that has actually macerated into white, cooked fish. Ooh, and some chopped onion, and a swig of aquavit. That would be good too, especially on a cold day.

  
  
• 
  Rustum Kozain
  June 10th, 2008 @14:04 #
   
  
  

  Richard, what do you mean you "ONCE experienced something AKIN to hunger" Do you have a permanent feed-tube attached to you? That's taking European plenitude a bit far, isn't it?

  
  
• 
  Rustum Kozain
  June 10th, 2008 @14:13 #
   
  
  

  Thanks for the oddschecker link, by the way, Ben. I just want to point out that I now check BookSA for both news and Richard's witty comments BEFORE I check any general news sites or Formula 1 sites.

  
  
• 
  Richard de Nooy
  June 10th, 2008 @14:31 #
   
  
  

  We weren't allowed to use the word "hunger" at home. It's a Dutch thing that derives from European scarcity during the Second World War. "Je hebt geen honger, je hebt trek." (You're not hungry, you're peckish.)

  
  
• 
  Rustum Kozain
  June 10th, 2008 @14:42 #
   
  
  

  Are you serious? That's an interesting socio-linguistic little tidbit. So, does it survive today? Do Dutch people generally say ik hebt trek, rather than honger?

  Ik hebt trek vir 'n haring.

  I wonder, if I tarry and procrastinate longer, how long the odds will grow against me finding that sourdough rye at the Spar...

  
  
• 
  Richard de Nooy
  June 10th, 2008 @14:54 #
   
  
  

  "Ik heb trek in haring" - actually. Or in your case: "Ik heb trek in zuurdesem."

  Dutch parents frequently remind their kids how lucky they are.

  
  
• 
  Sven
  June 10th, 2008 @15:25 #
   
  
  

  I love the way threads get de-railed here. It might be worthwhile to transform this particular thread into the reader review thread for 6FM&ATS.

  
  
• 
  Rustum Kozain
  June 10th, 2008 @15:52 #
   
  
  

  Sven, I was thinking about that too, but rather as 'organically flowing' than as derailment.

  Ik heb trek in haring en zuurdesem. Richard and Sven, you are so lucky to be within walking distance of herring and sourdough and aquavit; I figured, out here in the colonies, I will have to make do with whatever local equivalent I can come up with. I mean, it's not the greatest sourdough rye that the Spar comes up with, but it's a start, and then, how about some Saldanha pilchards in tomato sauce.

  OK, I must go buy that bread now; the odds must be, lemme see, there will be two loaves left, with say 200 potential customers. Now how do I calculate odds?

  
  
• 
  Rustum Kozain
  June 10th, 2008 @17:25 #
   
  
  

  There were five loaves (Spar calls it San Francisco Sourdough); no one else seemed to be interested in them at all. Alas, they were already in plastic (plastic!) and so the crust isn't has crusty as they normally are. And alas and alack, no pickled herring; just rollmops, which look like they've actually been boiled. But I'll take some pickled cucumber and cut it up just so; that on the bread, I can imagine I am eating pickled herring.

  
  
• 
  Ben - Editor
  June 23rd, 2008 @00:04 #
   
  
  

  With Coetzee's M-Net win... the latest odds:

  Fiction Prize

  * Coetzee 9-5
  * Dovey 7-5
  * Mhlongo 6-1
  * Gray 15-1
  * Cartwright 21-1

  Bookie says: "Coetzee's charge shows [again] quality will out, and leaves Mhlongo with best-bet show money."

  Alan Paton Award

  * Gevisser 7-2
  * Van Onselen 8-5
  * Bizos 7-5

  Bookie says: "This is like the decompression chamber minutes after surfacing from the deep - long, tedious wait ahead. Those who are game will find reason enough to bet on Mark."

  
  
• 
  Ben - Editor
  July 1st, 2008 @12:28 #
   
  
  

  One month to go before the winners are announced, and some surprising moves:

  Fiction Prize

  * Coetzee 7-5
  * Dovey 8-5
  * Mhlongo 7-1
  * Gray 16-1
  * Cartwright 22-1

  Bookie says: "What a dogfight between Diary and Blood Kin! Tears is quite a tasty bet to show at 7-1."

  Alan Paton Award

  * Gevisser 4-1
  * Van Onselen 9-5
  * Bizos 6-5

  Bookie says: "Odyssey pips Fox for the first time - but Thabo is still paying the most attractive odds, given the likelihood of a win or show."

  
  
• 
  Ben - Editor
  July 27th, 2008 @12:24 #
   
  
  

  Less than a week to go, and the race seriously tightens up:

  Fiction Prize

  * Coetzee 2-1
  * Dovey EVEN
  * Mhlongo 9-1
  * Gray 11-1
  * Cartwright 21-1

  Bookie says: "The Diary-Blood kin dogfight continues; there's plenty of value in the other three, particularly as Song's late charge has yet to materialize."

  Alan Paton Award

  * Gevisser 5-2
  * Van Onselen 2-1
  * Bizos 7-5

  Bookie says: "There's hardly anything in this. Wise punters will now simply ride it out."

  
  
• 
  Ben - Editor
  August 2nd, 2008 @20:45 #
   
  
  

  Your Correspondent reporting live from the Sunday Times Literary Awards. Betting on the awards is now closed - back soon (2-3 hours) with the winners!

  
  

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